Every stakeholder is concerned about project costs. The ability to accurately forecast project performance in terms of costs and schedule is a powerful tool in project cost management. In this article, Project Performance formulae, such as estimate at completion and estimate to complete are shown.

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### Introduction to Earned Value Project Performance Formulae

Earned Value is a part of the Project Cost Management knowledge area. This is the last in the series of articles on Earned Value computations. The other articles in this series are:

- Compute the Earned Value (EV) of a Project
- Examples of Cost Variance (CV) and Schedule Variance (SV) in a Project
- How to Compute Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) in Projects

To gauge project performance by using Earned Value Analysis formulae, use the following:

**Estimate at Completion (EAC)**: Computes project performance by looking at the total cost of the project when it is completed based on the current rate of progress.**Estimate to Complete (ETC)**: Calculates project performance by looking at the amount of money required to complete the project based on the current rate of progress.**Variance at Completion (VAC)**: Computes project performance by looking at the variance of the total project cost at completion when compared with the project budget.**To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI) based on BAC**: Represents the level of project performance that future project work needs to be implemented to meet the budget.**TCPI based on EAC**: Represents the level of project performance that future project work needs to be implemented to meet the project’s cost based on past project performance.

Next, let's look at a couple of examples to compute project performance.

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### Example 1

Suppose you have a budgeted cost of a project at $900,000. The project is to be completed in 9 months. After a month, you have completed 10 percent of the project at a total expense of $100,000. The planned completion should have been 15 percent. Now, let’s see the project performance.

From the scenario, you can extract the following project performance parameters:

- BAC = $900,000
- AC = $100,000

The project performance in terms of Planned Value and Earned Value can then be computed as follows:

- Planned Value = Planned Completion (%) * BAC = 15% * $900,000 = $135,000
- Earned Value = Actual Completion (%) * BAC = 10% * $900,000 = $90,000
- Cost Performance Index = EV / AC = $90,000 / $100,000 = 0.90

The Earned Value Project Performance formulae are as follows:

**Estimate at Completion (EAC) =**BAC / CPI = $900,000 / 0.9 = $1,000,000. At the current rate, the project performance in terms of cost is: Project completion in $1,000,000 as opposed to a planned budget of $900,000.**Estimate to Complete (ETC) =**EAC – AC = $1,000,000 - $100,000 = $900,000. If the project performance continues at this rate, the project requires $ 900,000 to be completed.**Variance at Completion (VAC)**= BAC – EAC = $900,000 - $1,000,000 = - $100,000. The project will be $100,000 over-budget at completion. The project will run $100,000 over-budget at completion.**To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI) based on BAC**= (BAC – EV) / (BAC – AC) = ($900,000 - $90,000) / ($900,000 - $100,000) = $810,000 / $800,000 = 1.01**TCPI based on EAC**= (BAC – EV) / (EAC – AC) = ($900,000 - $90,000) / ($1,000,000 - $100,000) = $810,000 / $900,000 = 0.9

**Note:**Read the**Protect Your Project Against Cost Overruns**article to understand how to use buffers. - slide 3 of 3
### Example 2

Suppose you are managing a software development project. The project is expected to be completed in 8 months at a cost of $10,000 per month. After 2 months, you realize that the project is 30 percent completed at a cost of $40,000. You need to determine whether the project is on-time and on-budget after 2 months. Let's see the project performance.

Step 1: Calculate the Planned Value (PV) and Earned Value (EV)

From the scenario, you can extract the following project performance parameters:

- Budget at Completion (BAC) = $10,000 * 8 = $80,000
- Actual Cost (AC) = $40,000
- Planned Completion = 2/8 = 25%
- Actual Completion = 30%

Therefore, the project performance in terms of Planned Value, Earned Value, and Cost Performance Index is:

- Planned Value = Planned Completion (%) * BAC = 25% * $80,000 = $20,000
- Earned Value = Actual Completion (%) * BAC = 30 % * $80,000 = $24,000
- Cost Performance Index = EV / AC = $24,000 / $40,000 = 0.6

The Earned Value Project Performance formulae are as follows:

**Estimate at Completion (EAC) =**BAC / CPI = $80,000 / 0.6 = $133,333. At the current rate, the project performance will be such that it will be completed with $133,333 as opposed to a planned budget of $80,000.**Estimate to Complete (ETC) =**EAC – AC = $133,333 - $40,000 = $93,333. Project performance at this rate means that the project requires $93,333 to be completed.**Variance at Completion (VAC)**= BAC – EAC = $80,000 - $133,333 = -$53,333. The project performance in terms of budget will be: $53,333 over-budget at completion.**To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI) based on BAC**= (BAC – EV) / (BAC – AC) = ($80,000 - $24,000) / ($80,000 - $40,000) = $56,000 / $40,000 = 1.4**TCPI based on EAC**= (BAC – EV) / (EAC – AC) = = ($80,000 - $24,000) / ($133,333 - $40,000) = $56,000 / $93,333 = 0.6

Following the golden rules for managing risk and scope creep will get the project back on-track.