# Earned Value Analysis for Project Performance in Project Cost Management

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## Introduction to Earned Value Project Performance Formulae

Earned Value is a part of the Project Cost Management knowledge area. This is the last in the series of articles on Earned Value computations. The other articles in this series are:

To gauge project performance by using Earned Value Analysis formulae, use the following:

• Estimate at Completion (EAC): Computes project performance by looking at the total cost of the project when it is completed based on the current rate of progress.
• Estimate to Complete (ETC): Calculates project performance by looking at the amount of money required to complete the project based on the current rate of progress.
• Variance at Completion (VAC): Computes project performance by looking at the variance of the total project cost at completion when compared with the project budget.
• To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI) based on BAC: Represents the level of project performance that future project work needs to be implemented to meet the budget.
• TCPI based on EAC: Represents the level of project performance that future project work needs to be implemented to meet the project’s cost based on past project performance.

Next, let’s look at a couple of examples to compute project performance.

## Example 1

Suppose you have a budgeted cost of a project at \$900,000. The project is to be completed in 9 months. After a month, you have completed 10 percent of the project at a total expense of \$100,000. The planned completion should have been 15 percent. Now, let’s see the project performance.

From the scenario, you can extract the following project performance parameters:

• BAC = \$900,000
• AC = \$100,000

The project performance in terms of Planned Value and Earned Value can then be computed as follows:

• Planned Value = Planned Completion (%) * BAC = 15% * \$900,000 = \$135,000
• Earned Value = Actual Completion (%) * BAC = 10% * \$900,000 = \$90,000
• Cost Performance Index = EV / AC = \$90,000 / \$100,000 = 0.90

The Earned Value Project Performance formulae are as follows:

• Estimate at Completion (EAC) = BAC / CPI = \$900,000 / 0.9 = \$1,000,000. At the current rate, the project performance in terms of cost is: Project completion in \$1,000,000 as opposed to a planned budget of \$900,000.
• Estimate to Complete (ETC) = EAC – AC = \$1,000,000 - \$100,000 = \$900,000. If the project performance continues at this rate, the project requires \$ 900,000 to be completed.
• Variance at Completion (VAC) = BAC – EAC = \$900,000 - \$1,000,000 = - \$100,000. The project will be \$100,000 over-budget at completion. The project will run \$100,000 over-budget at completion.
• To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI) based on BAC = (BAC – EV) / (BAC – AC) = (\$900,000 - \$90,000) / (\$900,000 - \$100,000) = \$810,000 / \$800,000 = 1.01
• TCPI based on EAC = (BAC – EV) / (EAC – AC) = (\$900,000 - \$90,000) / (\$1,000,000 - \$100,000) = \$810,000 / \$900,000 = 0.9

Note: Read the Protect Your Project Against Cost Overruns article to understand how to use buffers.

## Example 2

Suppose you are managing a software development project. The project is expected to be completed in 8 months at a cost of \$10,000 per month. After 2 months, you realize that the project is 30 percent completed at a cost of \$40,000. You need to determine whether the project is on-time and on-budget after 2 months. Let’s see the project performance.

Step 1: Calculate the Planned Value (PV) and Earned Value (EV)

From the scenario, you can extract the following project performance parameters:

• Budget at Completion (BAC) = \$10,000 * 8 = \$80,000
• Actual Cost (AC) = \$40,000
• Planned Completion = 2/8 = 25%
• Actual Completion = 30%

Therefore, the project performance in terms of Planned Value, Earned Value, and Cost Performance Index is:

• Planned Value = Planned Completion (%) * BAC = 25% * \$80,000 = \$20,000
• Earned Value = Actual Completion (%) * BAC = 30 % * \$80,000 = \$24,000
• Cost Performance Index = EV / AC = \$24,000 / \$40,000 = 0.6

The Earned Value Project Performance formulae are as follows:

• Estimate at Completion (EAC) = BAC / CPI = \$80,000 / 0.6 = \$133,333. At the current rate, the project performance will be such that it will be completed with \$133,333 as opposed to a planned budget of \$80,000.
• Estimate to Complete (ETC) = EAC – AC = \$133,333 - \$40,000 = \$93,333. Project performance at this rate means that the project requires \$93,333 to be completed.
• Variance at Completion (VAC) = BAC – EAC = \$80,000 - \$133,333 = -\$53,333. The project performance in terms of budget will be: \$53,333 over-budget at completion.
• To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI) based on BAC = (BAC – EV) / (BAC – AC) = (\$80,000 - \$24,000) / (\$80,000 - \$40,000) = \$56,000 / \$40,000 = 1.4
• TCPI based on EAC = (BAC – EV) / (EAC – AC) = = (\$80,000 - \$24,000) / (\$133,333 - \$40,000) = \$56,000 / \$93,333 = 0.6

Following the golden rules for managing risk and scope creep will get the project back on-track.